MFG STATE OF THE MARKET 8-11-24
Last Monday, we saw the most recent Black Swan event in a while due to the Japanese carry trade and the most recent U.S economic jobs report. The stock market experienced a sharp sell-off due to disappointing U.S. jobs data, which heightened fears of an impending recession.
Concurrently, the Bank of Japan's unexpected interest rate hike triggered the unwinding of the yen carry trade, further amplifying market declines.
These combined factors led to significant drops in major indexes, with the NASDAQ and Japanese Nikkei 225 suffering substantial losses. Bonds finally did what they were supposed to do— went up when the stock market went down.
Bonds (TLT) popped, banged an extreme-high RSI, and were the leading asset class of “The Wind.” A stage 2 breakout is underway in Gold (GLD). Oil (USO) is back in a stage 1 accumulation zone above its 200-day SMA.
The Dow Jones (DIA), the Nasdaq (QQQ), and the S&P 500 (SPY) are back in stage 1 accumulation zones above their 200-day SMA. This doesn’t mean the sell-off or potential market correction is over. Check your charts, follow what price is doing, and stick to The Money Flow Rules.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) are also in stage 1 accumulation zones, but trading below their 200-day SMAs. Momentum is still to the downside on the higher timeframe. Be patient and stay in flow.
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Despite the “mini crash” on Monday, last week was very exciting for the MFG portfolio; I love sell-offs! Bonds, consumer staples, utilities, real estate, and war stocks performed well. I finally took profits in my 3x leveraged bonds trade TMF that I’ve been building for the past three years.
We saw a beautiful move in Kellanova (K). I trimmed some profits in K and closed my B&B swing trade in MCD for a nice gain. I also added to BITO, CLM, and CRM in my buy and hold portfolio and opened new swing trades in SOFI, AMDL, SNOW, BITX, OXY and AGQ.
View the FULL LENGTH of The Peters Report! CLICK HERE!
This week, I’m keeping a close eye on PFE, INTC, WBA, GOOG, TSLA, DKNG, CLSK, LYFT, ABNB, WBD, SNAP, KRE/DPST, and extreme-yield funds ABNY, MRNY, and DISO.
I'm looking to accumulate shares of KLG, DOW, FCX, MRK, COP, OXY, CVX, VZ, SBUX, BXMT, DNUT, DAL, NKE, SOFI, AMZU, AMDL, FNGU, REM, USA/ASG, and extreme-yield funds USOI, ULTY, GOOY, CONY, AMDY, TSLY, AMZY, AIYY, JPMO, KLIP, OARK, CLM/CRF, JEPY, QQQY, IWMY, and GDXY.
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Always remain bullish and follow The Money Flow.
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-GP a.k.a Fullauto11 🧙🐼
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You must understand what caused the sell-off last Monday.
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Understanding Last Monday’s Market Meltdown & How Weak Jobs Data and Japan's Yen Shift Triggered a Global Sell-Off
On Monday, August 5th, 2024, the stock market experienced a significant sell-off, driven by a combination of factors involving U.S. economic data and global financial dynamics, particularly the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade.
The U.S. jobs report released the previous Friday showed much weaker-than-expected job growth, with only 114,000 jobs added in July, far below expectations. This raised concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy and increased fears of a potential recession.
Investors reacted strongly to this disappointing data, selling off stocks, especially in sectors that are highly sensitive to economic conditions.
At the same time, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised its interest rates by 0.25%, a move that had profound effects on global markets. For years, investors have engaged in the yen carry trade, borrowing in yen at extremely low interest rates and investing in higher-yielding assets elsewhere, including U.S. stocks.
The rate hike led to a sudden strengthening of the yen, forcing many investors to unwind these trades quickly, leading to massive selling in the stock markets, particularly in tech-heavy indices like the NASDAQ.
This combination of a weak U.S. jobs report and the rapid unwinding of the yen carry trade created a perfect storm, leading to sharp declines across global markets.
Major U.S. indexes like the S&P 500 (SPY) and NASDAQ (QQQ) saw their largest one-day losses in nearly two years, with the NASDAQ dropping nearly 9% over two trading days. The Japanese Nikkei 225 index also plummeted by over 13%, marking its worst day since 1987.
These events underscored the interconnectedness of global financial markets and how economic developments in one region can have ripple effects across the world.
Trade ideas this week: AMZU, AMDL, DNUT, OILU, AAPX, GGLL, ROKU, SNOW, CONL, JOBY, DKNG, FAS, FNGU
B&B trade ideas: SBUX, MRK, DAL, NKE, CVS, CVX, CSCO
I’m looking to trim K and roll profits forward into KLG this week.
[See trade idea KLG chart below.]
Crypto trade ideas: CLSK, BITX, BCHG, WGMI, CONL
Dividend ideas: FCX, DOW, NKE, COP, CVX, VZ, KSS, REM, USA, ASG
Top yielders I’m watching closely: GLV, CRF, CLM, KLIP, BITO, YBIT, GOOY, AMDY, ABNY
New tickers: AVGO, OXY, MBLY, RIVN, DKNG, JOBY
Get access to my “MFG Trade Ideas of The Week” chart pack CLICK HERE!!
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As always, MFG- do your fucking homework! If you need help with getting started on your homework watch this video above and read my latest article about my step by step guide to completing your Money Flow Playbook! No more excuses!!
Always remember, whatever you think about comes about, whatever you focus on grows. - GP
Looking for a group of likeminded people to trade with? Text alerts and the MFG Discord. Text GP 1-936-661-7786 or email GP fullauto11@gmail.com to join.
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Excellent write up thank you!
YES YES YES another Brilliant Newsletter 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥